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5 Aleatory Variability and Epistemic Uncertainty

5-1 5 Aleatory Variability and Epistemic Uncertainty Aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty are terms used in seismic hazard analysis that are not commonly used in other fields, but the concepts are well known.

Uncertainty in Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Review

Uncertainties are sometimes distinguished as being either aleatory or epistemic. We study this distinction, and present the deflnitionsof these types of uncertainty in Section 2.

Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?

Special Workshop on Risk Acceptance and Risk Communication March 26-27, 2007, Stanford University Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter? Armen Der Kiureghian University of California, Berkeley 723 Davis Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710, USA, adk@ce.Berkeley. edu and Ove ...

Uncertainty Quantification Using Evidence Theory

2 Outline of the Presentation • Historical perspective of risk assessment • Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty • Mathematical structure of evidence theory • Example using evidence theory • Future research and cultural change Work in collaboration with Jon Helton and Jay Johnson ...

Contradictions of Aleatory Materialism: on Louis Althusser's ...

Contradictions of Aleatory Materialism: on Louis Althusser's later Writings Panagiotis Sotiris Paper presented at the 2006 Historical Materialism Annual Conference Panteion University, Athens psotiris@otenet. gr Abstract The aim of this paper is a critical appraisal of Louis Althusser's later ...

BAYESIAN RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION UNDER BOTH ...

Byeng D. Youn and Pingfeng Wang BAYESIAN RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION UNDER BOTH ALEATORY AND EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTIES Byeng D. Youn

ESTIMATION OF SYSTEM FAILURE PROBABILITY UNCERTAINTY ...

The first type of uncertainty is aleatory uncertainty. Other names for aleatory uncertainty are "random uncertainties" and "stochastic uncertainties."

A Brief Overview of Uncertainty Quantification and Error ...

Sources of Uncertainty in Simulation Unfortunately, most numerical simulations of physical systems are rife with sources of uncertainty. Some examples include •Geometrical uncertainty (Is the geometry exactly known?) •Initialand boundary data uncertainty (Are initial/boundary conditions ...

Propagating Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty in Nonlinear ...

Propagating Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty in Nonlinear Dynamic Models Scott Ferson admin@ramas.com Youdong Lin ylin@nd.edu George Corliss Mark Stadtherr Engineering analysis and design problems frequently involve uncertain pa-rametersand inputs.

Aleatory Persistent Threat

Aleatoricism is the creation of art by chance, exploiting the principle of randomness. The word derives from the Latin word alea, the rolling of dice.